Russia’s military forces are making significant progress in the ongoing Ukraine war, achieving substantial territorial gains in 2024. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has captured six times more land this year than in 2023, advancing toward critical logistical hubs in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s earlier surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region appears to be faltering as Russian forces push back, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat. Analysts have raised questions about Kyiv’s strategy, describing the situation as a potential strategic setback leading to manpower challenges for Ukraine.
Tensions have also risen as Ukraine reportedly used U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike within Russian territory, a move that prompted Moscow to warn of “appropriate and effective” retaliation.
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Russia’s Eastern Advancements
After a period of stalemate in 2023, ISW data reveals that Russia has seized 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024, compared to just 465 square kilometers last year. Notable recent gains include areas in Kharkiv’s Kupiansk and Donetsk’s Kurakhove regions. These territories hold strategic importance, including proximity to Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub.
Dr. Marina Miron, a defense expert at King’s College London, warned that if Russia maintains its current pace, Ukraine’s eastern frontlines could collapse. Since September 1, Russia has reportedly captured 1,000 square kilometers, including areas around the Oskil River and Kupiansk, where Russian forces are now advancing into northeastern sectors.
The Kursk Situation
Ukraine’s August offensive in Kursk initially shocked many, as Russian forces were slow to respond. Kyiv’s troops quickly gained control of several border communities. However, Russia has since redeployed 50,000 soldiers to the region and has regained control of half the lost territories. Verifiable videos from the region depict intense battles, with both sides incurring heavy losses.
Despite Ukraine’s initial success, ISW reports that Russia reclaimed 593 square kilometers of Kursk territory through counteroffensives in October. Military analyst Dr. Miron noted that Ukraine’s focus on Kursk allowed Russia to consolidate gains in other regions, such as Donbas.
Heavy Costs on Both Sides
The conflict continues to exact a heavy toll. Since the war began in 2022, at least 78,329 Russian soldiers have died, according to BBC Russia. Despite their recent advancements, analysts like David Handelman argue that Russia’s campaign remains slow and costly, reflecting the broader challenges of the protracted conflict.
As the war escalates, the situation in Ukraine remains precarious, with both sides grappling with immense challenges and the international community closely watching developments.
